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2026 Refund Update: How the OBBBA is Shaping Tax Season

As we navigate the opening weeks of the 2026 tax filing season here in Coral Gables, the initial data from the IRS tells an interesting story. We are seeing a distinct upward trend in average refunds, a shift that is catching the eye of taxpayers and financial professionals alike. Currently, the average refund sits at $2,476, up from $2,169 at this time in 2025. While this 14.2% increase is welcome news for household cash flow, it hasn't quite hit the $1,000 surplus that some policymakers originally projected.

However, it is vital to remember that we are still in the early innings. As more complex returns are processed, these averages will likely shift. The current boost is largely attributed to the sweeping changes introduced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and understanding these provisions is key to maximizing your outcome this year.

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New Deductions Driving the Numbers

The OBBBA has introduced a suite of specific deductions and credits designed to lower tax liability for working families and individuals. At NR CPAs & Business Advisors, we are closely monitoring how these apply to our clients:

  • Overtime Premium Pay Deduction: The Act now allows for the deduction of the "half" component of "time-and-a-half" pay mandated by the FLSA. This is capped at $12,500 for single filers and $25,000 for married couples filing jointly.

  • Tips Tax Deduction: For those in designated service occupations, up to $25,000 of "qualified tips" can now be deducted. Note that for both overtime and tips, benefits phase out starting at a Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) of $150,000 ($300,000 for joint filers) and disappear completely at $275,000 ($550,000 for joint filers).

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: If you purchased a new, U.S.-assembled vehicle for personal use after 2024, you may deduct up to $10,000 in loan interest. This applies whether you itemize or take the standard deduction, provided the loan is secured by the vehicle and not from a friend or relative. Income phase-outs apply here as well, starting at $100,000 MAGI ($200,000 for joint filers).

  • Enhanced Standard Deductions: The standard deduction has jumped to $31,500 for married couples filing jointly and $15,750 for singles. Additionally, a new "Senior Bonus" offers an extra $6,000 for taxpayers aged 65+, subject to income limits.

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has increased to $2,200 per child. This benefit remains available for joint filers with income up to $400,000.

  • Increased SALT Limit: A significant change for many homeowners, the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction cap has been raised from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately), though high earners (MAGI over $500,000) will see this cap phase back down.

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Behind the Scenes: Withholding and Processing

Beyond the legislation, other mechanical factors are influencing refund sizes. Because many of these tax cuts were enacted mid-year, the IRS withholding tables were not immediately updated to reflect the lower tax obligations. Consequently, many employees had more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, resulting in larger refunds now.

Furthermore, inflation adjustments to tax brackets are helping to prevent "bracket creep," ensuring that cost-of-living raises don't inadvertently push taxpayers into higher tax rates. We also note that a portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now refundable, meaning it can be paid out even if no tax is owed.

Navigating IRS Challenges

While the potential for refunds is positive, the logistics of the 2026 season present hurdles. The IRS is currently operating with a reduced workforce and a lingering backlog of returns. We have observed a slight dip in processing speeds compared to previous years. This makes accuracy on your initial return more critical than ever to avoid delays.

Family with dog at veterinarian

If you are hesitant to file because the changes seem overwhelming, do not let that delay your refund. Led by Nischay Rawal, our team at NR CPAs & Business Advisors is fully versed in every nuance of the OBBBA. We combine the depth of a large firm with the agility of a boutique partner to ensure you capture every credit you are owed. Contact us today to ensure your 2025 return is accurate, compliant, and optimized.

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